Space is hard. Justifying Rocket Lab’s stock price may be harder.
Rocket Lab (RKLB 3.68%) stock is taking investors on another roller-coaster ride Monday morning. First spiking past 7% in the opening minutes, the stock began losing steam almost immediately, falling into the red before 10 a.m. before finding its footing and rising again.
As of 10:45 a.m. ET, Rocket Lab stock is up 2%.
Why did Rocket Lab stock pop?
Investors enjoying today’s ride can thank two investment banks, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, for their good fortune. Reports show that this morning, Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag nearly tripled her price target on Rocket Lab stock to $18 a share, while Citigroup’s Jason Gursky raised his target from $13 to $22.
Both analysts cited optimism about the prospects for Rocket Lab’s new Neutron medium-lift vehicle winning market share.
Morgan Stanley’s analyst, however, did caution that the stock could be volatile ahead of Neutron’s first launch, and kept her stock recommendation at “equal weight” (i.e., hold). Citi’s analyst was more bullish, reiterating his buy rating and hinting that Neutron could see even more demand than Rocket Lab has so far let on.
Is Rocket Lab stock a buy?
As Morgan Stanley pointed out, there’s a wide range of possible prices for Rocket Lab stock, which could be worth anywhere from $10 to $25 a share, depending on whether Neutron launches on time next year.
As the saying goes, “space is hard,” and Rocket Lab may need extra time to get Neutron ready for launch. (The rocket was supposed to start launching in 2024.) Still, Rocket Lab has a good track record with its Electron rocket and will probably launch Neutron eventually — and then keep on launching. Looking out five years, analysts see this space stock generating more than $500 million in free cash flow (FCF) in 2029, valuing it at about 18 times 2029 FCF.
Personally, I wouldn’t buy more stock at this price, even if Rocket Lab does succeed with Neutron. Then again, I already own it.