This pager runs on two AAA batteries, which, like any battery, could be induced to explode, but likely not with such force and scale as the explosions depicted in alleged videos of the blasts. Even if this isn’t the model of the pagers, and those used by Hezbollah run instead on lithium-ion batteries, which can cause more dangerous explosions, it’s still unlikely that a regular pager battery alone could produce blasts that could injure multiple people.
“Those explosions aren’t just batteries,” says Jake Williams, vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy who formerly worked for the US National Security Agency. “Based on the reporting, these pagers were likely interdicted by Israeli authorities and modified with explosives. This highlights the risks of supply chain security, especially in places where technology is harder to ship to.”
Williams points out that such an operation would likely involve operatives on both the tech distribution side and the Hezbollah procurement side. “You compromise the supply chain, but you don’t want thousands of explosive pagers running around Lebanon,” he says. “The mole gets them to exactly the right people.”
Some reports on Tuesday indicate that Hezbollah recently expanded its use of pagers in an attempt to secure communications after other channels had been infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. The Associated Press reported that an anonymous “Hezbollah official” said the group had recently adopted a “new brand” of pagers that “first heated up, then exploded.”
“It’s unlikely that hacking was involved, as it’s likely that explosive material had to be inside the pagers to cause such an effect,” says Lukasz Olejnik, an independent consultant and visiting senior research fellow at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies. “Reports mention the delivery of new pagers recently, so perhaps the delivery was compromised.”
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Middle East and North Africa risk management company Le Beck International, says if the attack is supply-chain-based, then it could have taken years to prepare and involved infiltrating a supplier and placing explosives inside new pagers.
“This is a major security breach, particularly if we’re talking about a charge that was placed inside the devices—which, in my opinion, is the most likely scenario,” Horowitz says. “This would mean that Israel has managed to infiltrate Hezbollah providers to the point of delivering hundreds (if not thousands) of devices used for secured communication.”
The incident comes amid escalations of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months, raising fears of a full-blown war. In the hours before the explosions on Tuesday, Israel said its war goals would include allowing 60,000 people to return to Northern Israel after they were evacuated following Hezbollah attacks, and it would not rule out military action.
Horowitz says the incident could be a “prelude to a broader offensive” and possibly meant to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications networks. It is likely that replacing a large number of pagers would take some time to organize. Alternatively, Horowitz says, the attack could also have been conducted to show the “scale of Israel’s intelligence penetration.”
“This is a high-value operation that you wouldn’t use just to cause injuries,” Horowitz says.
The operation could have a psychological impact given that bombs may have been lurking undetected in such an unassuming device. And though Tuesday’s attacks were notably aggressive, it would not be the first time Israeli intelligence has reportedly planted explosives in electronics.