SPG earnings call for the period ending June 30, 2024.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Simon Property Group (SPG -2.00%)
Q2 2024 Earnings Call
Aug 05, 2024, 5:00 p.m. ET
Contents:
- Prepared Remarks
- Questions and Answers
- Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to Simon Property Group’s second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.
[Operator instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Tom Ward, senior vice president of investor relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Thomas Ward — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Shari, and thank you all for joining us this evening. Presenting on today’s call are David Simon, chairman, chief executive officer, and president; and Brian McDade, chief financial officer. A quick reminder that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We refer you to today’s press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to those forward-looking statements.
Please note that this call includes information that may be accurate only as of today’s date. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included within the press release and the supplemental information in today’s Form 8-K filing. Both the press release and the supplemental information are available on our IR website at investors.simon.com. Our conference call this evening will be limited to one hour.
For those who would like to participate in the question-and-answer session, we ask that you please respect our request to limit yourself to one question. I’m pleased to introduce David Simon.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Good evening, everyone. I’m pleased with our financial and operational performance in the second quarter. We are seeing increased leasing volumes, occupancy gains, shopper traffic, and retail sales volumes, resulting in the company’s highest level of real estate NOI for the second quarter in our company’s history. Demand for our space from a broad spectrum of tenants is strong and steady.
Our company is focused on creating value through unique and disciplined investment activities that will continue to deliver long-term growth in cash flow, funds from operations, and dividends, as you’ve seen by our recent increase in our dividend per share, and importantly, make our properties better for the communities in which they operate. I’m now going to turn the call over to Brian, who will cover our second quarter results and the full year guidance in more detail.
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, David. Second quarter funds from operations were $1.09 billion or $2.90 per share compared to $1.800 billion or $2.88 per share last year. SFO from our real estate business was $2.93 per share in the second quarter compared to $2.81 in the prior year, a 4.3% growth. Domestic and international operations had a very good quarter and contributed $0.12 of growth.
As a reminder, the prior year included a noncash gain of $0.07 from investment activity related to ABG. Domestic NOI increased 5.2% year over year for the quarter. Continued leasing momentum, resilient consumer spending, and operational excellence delivered results exceeding our plan for the quarter. Portfolio NOI, which includes our international properties at constant currency, grew 4.8% for the quarter.
Malls and outlet occupancy at the end of the second quarter was 95.6%, an increase of 90 basis points compared to the prior year. The Mills occupancy was 98.2%. Average base minimum rent for malls and outlets increased 3% year over year, and The Mills increased 3.9%. As David mentioned, leasing momentum continued across the portfolio.
We signed more than 1,400 leases for approximately 4.8 million square feet in the quarter. Approximately 30% of our leasing activity in the second quarter was new deal volume. Our traffic in the second quarter was up 5% compared to last year. And importantly, total sales volumes increased approximately 2% year over year.
Reported retailer sales per square foot in the second quarter was $741 for The Mall and premium outlets combined. We hosted our third Annual National Outlet Shopping Day in June, and it was very successful for shoppers and participating retailers. More than 3 million shoppers visited our premium outlets and Mill centers over the shopping weekend. Feedback from shoppers and retailers following the event has been great.
Since launching this unique event three years ago, participating retailer and shopping momentum has built each year with more than 475 retailers this year, and we look forward to an even a bigger event next year. Our occupancy cost at the end of the second quarter was 12.7%. Turning to new development and redevelopment. We will open our Tulsa Premium Outlets on August 15th at 100% leased and we will also open a significant expansion at Busan Premium outlets in South Korea this fall.
We also started construction in the quarter on our first phase of a new luxury residential development in Northgate station. This project will include 234 units and add other elements that further transform Northgate into the ultimate live, work, scape, stay, and shop destination. At the end of the quarter, new development and redevelopment projects were underway across all platforms in the U.S. and internationally, with our share of net cost of $1.1 billion and a blended yield of 8%.
Now to the balance sheet. We completed the refinancing of 10 property mortgages during the first half of the year for a total of approximately $1.1 billion at an average rate of 6.36%. We ended the quarter with approximately $11.2 billion of liquidity. Turning to the dividend.
Today, we announced our dividend of $2.05 per share for the third quarter, a year-over-year increase of 7.9%. The dividend is payable on September 30th. And now finally for guidance. We are increasing our full year 2024 guidance range to $12.80 a $12.90 per share compared to $12.51 last year.
This is an increase of $0.05 at the bottom end of the range and $0.02 at the midpoint and reflects overcoming approximately $0.15 per share from certain retailer restructurings, low-release settlement, and land sales income this year. With that, that concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you, and David and I are now available for your questions.
Questions & Answers:
Operator
Thank you. [Operator instructions] Our first question is from Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed.
Jeffrey Spector — Analyst
Great, good afternoon, and congratulations on the quarter. I guess, my only question at this point, as I circle back in, I guess, let’s focus on the consumer, given you service the consumer across various formats, from the malls to premium outlets to mills. What are your latest thoughts on the consumer today? Clearly, the market is panicking that we may see a consumer-led recession. And maybe if you could tie it to what you’re seeing from retailers and how they’re acting today.
Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Jeff. This is David. I’ll take that. So, look, I think we’ve been pretty consistent for well over a year that the lower income consumer has been under pressure for quite some time, primarily because of the inflation that’s affected them.
So, that continues to be the case. They are very focused on managing their bills, and discretionary expenditures have been obviously not where we’d like to see them. So, we’re optimistic that we’re going to cycle out of that for the lower-end consumer, given the inflation picture that we see now, which is relatively benign. It’s way too early, Jeff.
We haven’t seen a slowdown in the higher-end consumer. Obviously, the market is in an interesting point. We have not seen the wealth impact at all impact the higher-end consumer. So, we’re still pretty sanguine about it.
I think as you know, we kind of budgeted at the beginning of the year, flat sales. We’re a little bit above that. So, we’ve got a little bit of cushion. But the higher-end or the better-end consumer, I think, is in a good spot.
Their liquidity is in a decent spot. So, we don’t expect anything dramatic. But obviously, they’re going to take their queue from what’s going to happen in the overall market and what the employment picture looks like. So, in summary, I think we’re going to cycle more positive in the lower-end consumer.
And I think the higher-end consumer, steady as she goes currently. Jeff, you can always ask another question. But Tom Ward has put a pretty tough restriction on people.
Jeffrey Spector — Analyst
No, thank you. I’ll be respectful. Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator
Our next question is from Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
Samir Khanal — Analyst
Hi, David. I guess, what are you seeing in terms of leasing or pricing power? I mean, are you seeing any tenants taking a bit of a pause or taking a bit longer to sign new leases given what’s happened with the macro? And I guess, any color in July would be also helpful in terms of traffic or sales. Thanks.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I don’t have color in July. We don’t really get those numbers until August 20th, which is my birthday by the way. But usually 20 days after the month. So, no early returns on that.
So, we had a deal committee meeting, Brian, a week ago. And what I am told, OK, I don’t participate in these because I would probably be disruptive. But what I am told it was the best new deal committee meeting we’ve had ever. So, I think what we’re seeing is demand and what I said earlier in my opening remarks, demand is strong and steady, not abating.
It’s really unabated. Obviously, retailers, and so are we, we’re all sensitive to economic conditions. So, as those develop, we have to be sensitive to them. But as we currently speak, we had a great deal of committee, and the team is working on all cylinders.
So, that’s kind of the news from the front.
Samir Khanal — Analyst
Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Sure.
Operator
Our next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Caitlin Burrows — Goldman Sachs — Analyst
Maybe just following up on that retailer demand side. So, portfolio occupancy has increased nicely over the last year. It sounds like leasing remains strong. You just mentioned the best new deal committee.
So, that would support further occupancy increases. I’m just wondering versus the current 95.6%, how much further upside do you think you have? Or is there some reason to expect this rate of increase can or cannot continue going forward?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Caitlin, it’s Brian. I think we’re pretty comfortable thinking that we’re going to end the year north of 96%. Certainly, still a little bit of noise out there. But given the robust demand in the type of environment we’re in, we think we’re north of 96% by the end of the year.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
I was just going to add that, I think, obviously, it’s also not just the occupancy number that’s also replacing retailers that aren’t performing with better retailers. So, it’s a mix issue, to which the team is very much focused on. Go ahead.
Caitlin Burrows — Goldman Sachs — Analyst
I was just going to say bigger picture like, Brian, you just mentioned, north of 96%. Is there any reason to think maybe based on what David said, that’s kind of a ceiling? Or there could still be continued upside potential?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Well, I’d be cautious and that’s a pretty good number for us year-end. Where were we last year, Tom?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Tom knows every number, but he’s hunkering. So, it’s a pretty good increase from last year.
Thomas Ward — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
95.8%.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
95.8? I’m not that good. So, maybe there’s an upside.
Caitlin Burrows — Goldman Sachs — Analyst
OK. Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Alex Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please proceed.
Alexander Goldfarb — Analyst
Hey, good afternoon, and David, certainly good to hear you on the call. I hope that the recovery and all the stuff is going well. Just a question for you, big picture. Jeff kicked it off in a number of — my peers have all asked the same question.
But as we look at the environment today, certainly, there’s a lot less retail availability. There’s been a big shakeup not only among the retailers themselves, but also the landlords, and certainly, cost for new development has gone through the roof. So, as you look at the picture today with the economic concerns but also at the same time that the tenants seem to be in better capital positions, are you as worried today when you see weak economic data? And does that impact the way you think about expanding, putting money to work and how the leasing conversations are going? Or do you think that we’re in a better situation or worse situation? How do you judge where we are now, just given that the environment seems to be different than it has been over the past few decades?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you, Alex, for the thoughts. And let me just answer your question. So, I frankly think that, listen, it sounds like I’m talking our book which, obviously, you would expect us to do. But we have never been better positioned.
So, I don’t look at the current uncertainty and even a potential recession, no one wants to go through that. But given how we’re positioned, I think we’re in an absolute unequivocal position to improve and better our company. So, again, we don’t want to go through a recession. But if we do, the gap between us and everybody else just gets bigger and bigger.
Our gap, if you look at kind of where we started three years ago and that’s where we are today, the gap is pretty damn big. It will only get bigger. And that’s a testament to the team and everybody else. And honestly, I’m not looking at a current potential recession or tough market as any basis to slow down.
Look at an example. We just started construction in North Bay building 234 apartments. We expect to do another phase of that probably in the next nine months as we go through the pricing. So, from our standpoint, we’re not slowing down.
And if the economy slows dramatically, the gap between us and just about everybody else will only get bigger. And that gives us opportunities to do some interesting stuff.
Alexander Goldfarb — Analyst
And you see the same confidence from your retailer, from your partners, your tenants or they’re waffling?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
I think the better retailers that are — we have a number of retailers that are in really good financial standing and I think they take a longer view just like we do. Not everyone, but I would tell you, the majority of who we’re doing new business with is definitely taking a longer term here. So, they’re looking to gain sales and market share as well. So, we’re certainly not on the defensive into the kind of the turmoil over the last few weeks.
And if anything, we’ll step up our investment activity. But not foolishly. I mean, we’ll do it like we do everything else. But we don’t see it as a reason to rein in at this point.
Alexander Goldfarb — Analyst
Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Sure.
Operator
Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed.
Michael Goldsmith — UBS — Analyst
Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. You continue to drive nice NOI growth driven by both occupancy gains and higher rents. Now we’ve talked a little bit on the call about occupancy potentially approaching a potential ceiling.
So, do you see increasing pricing power with that to maybe offset that? I’m just trying to get a better understanding of how the algorithm kind of looks in the coming quarters.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Well, again, occupancy, like any statistic is one. And again, to be clear, we do think we’ll increase our occupancy. The bigger opportunity for us is, again, to continue to increase better than mix. And that drives, obviously, the better the mix, the higher the sales, the higher.
The sales, the more likelihood that you’re going to have higher rents. So, that’s the big focus as we continue to merchandise our properties. Brian, I don’t know if you want to add anything to it?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Michael, look, we continue to see pricing power. Roughly rents are similar to where we’ve seen an escalation last year when we talked about rents for setting these new deals. That’s continuing.
And as we find more and more retailers update mix, it drives demand and it ultimately drives our pricing power. So, there’s a recurring theme here relative to that.
Michael Goldsmith — UBS — Analyst
Thank you very much. Good luck in the back half.
Operator
Our next question is from Craig Mailman with Citigroup.
Craig Mailman — Analyst
Hey, guys. Maybe shifting gears a bit to the balance sheet and just the rate environment here. Just your thoughts generally with a 3-, 8-, 10-year. Did that at all changing your view on kind of the upcoming debt maturities in the back half of the year and how to fund those versus how much cash to keep on hand versus, David, maybe your commentary about the gap between you and others, your ability to be on the offensive to make investments now that if we do go into recession by the time they’re done, you’re kind of on the other side of it, and you’re well-positioned.
So, I’m just kind of curious. I know it’s a broader question, but just how the kind of the softening rate environment here, does that change anything you’re doing or how you want to be positioned on the margin?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Craig, it’s Brian. Look, one data doesn’t really change our financing plans for the year. We’re sitting on $3.1 billion of cash. We have $1.9 billion in maturities in the back half of the year.
Current plan is still to refinance those out with cash on hand. But to the extent we were to see opportunity to do alternatively or the market opens up with tight spreads, certainly, we can access the market in the back half of the year as well. There’s no current plans to do so at present.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. And I would just say, look, we got $11 billion of liquidity. So, obviously, a lower interest rate environment does increase our earnings potential. There’s all sorts of things associated with a lower interest rate environment.
But by and large, that’s beneficial to real estate. So, if that’s the case, that’s going to be better than what we planned initially for this year and what we’re thinking for next year. So, that’s good news in a nutshell. But again, remember, we’re not living mortgage to mortgage.
We’re a different kind of company. So, we don’t have the holy Toledo, to say another word, holy Toledo, we can’t refinance this mortgage. But by and large, as rates go lower, that’s better for this company.
Operator
Our next question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Juan C. Sanabria — Analyst
Thanks for the time. David, I hope your recovery is going well. Just curious on the investment front. You clearly sound more bullish or wanting to invest more capital in dev and redev.
But just curious about external acquisitions with the statement that you said that you’re only going to kind of widen the gap between yourself and others. Would that make you want to wait because there’s going to be a better maybe spread down the road between your performance and those of others or not necessarily?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Well, it’s a good question, and that’s what I would just say judgment comes into play. I mean, we have been, as you know, right, because if there was any material, we disclose it. We haven’t really done anything external for quite some time. And we’re going to just be looking at quality stuff where we can add value that’s appropriately priced.
And up until this point, frankly, we haven’t found it. So, that doesn’t mean that we’re discouraged but we’ll keep doing that because that is an element of what this company is good at. And we would like to add quality where we could add value at the right fronts. And if it’s not at the right price, or if it’s not at the right quality, there’s just nothing there for us to do.
We’re basically out of the portfolio business. So, as far as I can see, I mean, things change. But I just don’t see us buying another big portfolio that we’d have to swap off a handful of properties. So, we’re really going to be selective.
But again, it’s going to be at the right price. And if we can’t get it at the right price, then we’ve got plenty to do, and we’ll keep our liquidity and keep doing what we’re doing.
Juan C. Sanabria — Analyst
Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Sure.
Operator
Our next question is from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Ronald Kamdem — Morgan Stanley — Analyst
Great. Best wishes to you, David, as well. Just a quick one for me. Could we double-click on some of the strength that you talked about in the portfolio, maybe breaking it down between maybe malls versus outlets or some of the tourist centers as well would be helpful.
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Well, Ron, I think you’re seeing broad-based demand across all of our platforms. So, it’s difficult to kind of give you an individual kind of thumbnail to it. But certainly, we overindex in our public business, certainly, toward international tourism very strong for us that’s a driving factor kind of in outlet business results. But certainly, retailers are doing business across all three formats.
You heard me say high occupancy. So, the demand is broad based from all retailers across all three major platforms of ours at this point. David, I don’t know if you —
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. It’s kind of interesting. I just don’t think there’s like a unique trend. So, it’s not Florida or Texas, it’s not outlets or malls.
It’s not in closed versus outdoors. It’s really very property-specific and I would say that the quality and the good stuff is getting better, and it’s almost — our traffic, which is a good indicator, it was pretty much across the board. So, I say there’s no unique unlike COVID, where when you came out of COVID, it was Florida and Texas, the smile states and whatever. I think it’s really property-specific.
And it’s not — so you could have a great property in XYZ city and a not so good one, an XYZ city. And they’re a tale of two stories. So, I really think it’s property-specific, and I don’t think there’s any one particular trend to focus on, at least in this quarter. We might have a better sense of it by year-end and see how things shake out, but not right now.
Ronald Kamdem — Morgan Stanley — Analyst
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed.
Haendel St. Juste — Analyst
Hi, thank you. David, as well, I wanted to wish you best wishes and hope for a speedy recovery here. My question tonight is I wanted to go back to the strong and broad-based demand you mentioned you’re seeing for space across the portfolio. I was hoping you could provide a bit more color on the size of the backlog of leases that are coming online and maybe some color on the timing of that.
And is there also any update you can provide on the 3%, or at least 3% domestic NOI growth from last quarter for the core? Thanks.
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Haendel, it’s Brian. As we think about demand, we’ve got a signed but not open pipeline of about 300 basis points. You heard David talk about mix, and so we are moving some tenants around, so that’s not all just additive. There’ll be some coming out of the bottom of that for sure.
But that’s just a further indication of the work that our team is on and demand for space to have 300 basis points signed but not open pipeline for us. So, really kind of that defines or kind of really gives you a really good sense of the breadth of what’s out there for us as far as demand for space.
Haendel St. Juste — Analyst
The 3%, at least —
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
As you know, we don’t update that as we go. We established at the beginning of the year, Haendel, and try to do our best to exceed that number, which we have thus far.
Haendel St. Juste — Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Vince Tibone with Green Street. Please proceed.
Vince Tibone — Green Street Advisors — Analyst
Hi. Good evening. How much do you think changes in the stock market impacts consumer spending at the higher end, just from your experience over the years? At what point does stock market volatility really start impacting consumer behavior and consumer sales?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
I think it’s more — I wish I had an algorithm. I don’t. But I’m sure we could get AI to do something for us. My history would suggest short-term fluctuations mean absolutely nothing.
But over time, a down market for have six or nine months, you’re going to reign in consumer spending. So, I do think it’s going to have to take the downward trend or the volatility is not going to really impact the consumer in the next short period of time. But if you see it for several months, then I would expect us to see some slowdown in consumer spending. So, it does take time to see.
But I think that consumer is used to seeing some volatility, and they have some probably built-in gains that they never thought they would have, right? So, when companies get valued in trillions, I remember when a $50 billion market cap was there. When a company gets valued at trillions of dollars, and that’s a lot of retail, I hope those retail investors are smarter enough to sell and then spend the money in our malls. I mean, that would be a good cycle for us, OK? So, I think even if these levels were in pretty good shape, if you have kind of a longer downturn, then it’s realistic to think that consumer spending is going to be reined in. Offsetting that, obviously, will be low inflation, lower interest rates and you could potentially see a scenario that we dealt with pre-COVID.
There’s a lot of variability out there, but I don’t think short-term fluctuation is going to have an immediate impact.
Vince Tibone — Green Street Advisors — Analyst
If I could maybe ask one quick follow-up along those lines. Just how should we think about the sensitivity of Simon’s cash flows to tenant sales? I mean, with all kind of COVID changes, it seems like most of that’s unwinded at this point. Yes, is there any guidepost you can share how much rent or how much of your total revenue rather is made up of over June percentage rents? Or just how much volatility is there on your business if tenant sales were to break?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Look, Brian may have a number. I would just say, big picture, a lot less coming out of COVID but higher probably than pre-COVID. And so I don’t know what percent that is.
Brian, if you don’t, we could probably give that number to you. But it’s certainly a lot less than when we started in COVID but higher than probably pre-COVID.
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
We’ll follow up offline, Vince.
Vince Tibone — Green Street Advisors — Analyst
Great. Appreciate the time. Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. Please proced.
Greg McGinniss — Scotiabank — Analyst
Hey. Good afternoon, David. We share a birthday, so I’m pretty excited about that. But for my question.
So, we noticed that the overall same-store NOI growth this quarter was healthy but largely driven by the consolidated portfolio. We had international NOI was down 1% year over year. JV revenues, down about 4% versus last year. Is there anything in particular that’s impacting the international and JV assets this quarter? And do you expect to see those return to year-over-year growth in the back half?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Greg, from an international perspective, Greg, last year, we did recognize a one-time performance fee in our McArthurGlen business with some third-party managed capital there. So, that did not repeat this year. So, that’s why you see a decline in that line item. That will normalize itself just by sheer operation going forward.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
I would just say our international assets, both in Asia and in Europe are pretty much on plan, if not a little bit better. So, Klepierre, as you know, reported last week to better results. And they’re obviously nicely positioned going forward. And Europe and Asia is — I mean, there’s some movements in the different countries.
Japan have an extraordinary growth because of a couple of other markets flat. But generally speaking, international that’s got good, and as Brian mentioned, good comp NOI growth this year and pretty much on budget.
Greg McGinniss — Scotiabank — Analyst
OK. Thank you very much.
Operator
Our next question is from Floris Van Dijkum with Compass Point. Please proceed.
Floris Van Dijkum — Analyst
Hey, thanks. Glad to hear you’re doing well, David. You sound great. Question on value retail.
I know you guys own a stake in that. It’s sold at an incredibly low cap rate to Catterton, who I think is the investment arm of LVMH. Could you maybe talk about maybe — and I think it’s a different market, obviously. But if you could talk about the cap rate environment in Europe versus here and maybe also the long-term nature of some of these big luxury brands? And do you see them putting money to work at those kinds of cap rates? I mean, I guess, they have already on Fifth Avenue, but in the mall business as well in the U.S.
in your view?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Well, let me try to unpack that a little bit, OK? So, Floris, I would say, first of all, L Catterton are very smart investors and value retail unique structure. So, I don’t think you can look through their investment that was at a significant discount to NAV to get to a cap rate without really having intimate inside knowledge, which you and I don’t have, OK? But they’re very smart investors. And I don’t think this is a — so that’s the first point I’d like to make just on that question. Second is, I think, again, it depends on what brands you’re talking about, whether it’s luxury or higher end or whatever, a better, moderate.
Every retailer is different. Everyone is looking to increase their sales, and every brand is different. So, you cannot paint the luxury investor by one broad stroke. And even within some of the larger groups, their brands are different.
You may have one brand growing, one shrinking, what have you. And again, L Catterton is also owned by the principals of Catterton, so it’s not just the group. I don’t think there is a trend for them to suddenly invest, got some money in retail real estate. I could be wrong.
And I think it really depends on each brand and what their strategy is.
Floris Van Dijkum — Analyst
And if I may follow up, I mean, are you having — how are your discussions going with your institutional partners here in the U.S. in the mall business? Are those partners happy? And are there opportunities for you to maybe buy some of them out? Or are they pretty comfortable owning some of those top malls that you typically JV with them?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Well, I would say overall, we hope in our relationships with our institutional partners is excellent. And again, it’s very hard to paint a broad brush. I would say, by and large, most are very complementary, very happy to be our partner. There’s always an asset here or there that may not fit with them long term.
But I would say, generally, it’s kind of business as usual with our institutional investors.
Floris Van Dijkum — Analyst
Thanks, David.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Sure.
Operator
Our next question is from Linda Tsai with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Linda Tsai — Jefferies — Analyst
Hi, good afternoon. On the 300 basis points of signed but not occupied, what does that represent in dollars? What’s the timing of that coming online? And would you expect this to compress going into next year?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Linda, most of that’s going to be back-end weighted to — there’ll be a little bit this year. Most of it will really manifest itself next year, just even where we are in the year, and how retailers traditionally position their store fleet to get most of it opened before back-to-school holidays. So, most of it is going to be front-end weighted for next year, excuse me.
Linda Tsai — Jefferies — Analyst
And would this sign but not occupied be down year on year at the end of next year from where you sit today?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
It’s really difficult to predict what’s going to happen 12 months from now, Linda. So, it is what it is right now. Ultimately, as we continue to kind of move through, we’ve seen some consistency in that number and in some increase, right, when you’re talking about it is about 200 basis points a year ago. So, you see an increase over the past 12 months to get to 300 basis points today.
Linda Tsai — Jefferies — Analyst
Thanks. And what’s that represent in dollars?
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
I don’t have that number in front of me here.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, that’s usually not something that we’re — that’s something that we’re not going to really disclose because then you’d add all the leases up and annualize the number. But it’s a big number.
Linda Tsai — Jefferies — Analyst
Great. Thank you.
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Mike Mueller — JPMorgan Chase and Company — Analyst
Yeah. Hi, David, we’re glad you’re on the call as well. For the question, TRG’s year-over-year base rent growth looks like it was over 8% in the second quarter. Can you talk about what’s driving that growth?
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
It’s just a mix of the deals that they’re doing at the assets they’re doing, Michael. So, they’re doing some better leasing and they’re better assets, and that’s really coming through the average rents for that period of time. Not every space is created equal, not every asset is created equal. So, they’re seeing great wins at their best assets that have the best pricing.
And it’s not a small portfolio. So, you’re getting a bigger percentage. It’s a smaller portfolio, a much lower portfolio than ours. So, you just see a bigger percentage jump from it.
Mike Mueller — JPMorgan Chase and Company — Analyst
Got it. OK. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities. Please proceed.
Ki Bin Kim — Analyst
Thank you, and good to see you sounding better, David. So, just curious. If there was a consumer downturn, could you discuss how your portfolio might perform today versus a few years ago? I realize the tenancy might have changed significantly over the years toward less apparel, more services, restaurants or other uses. I’m trying to look at this from a sales sensitivity standpoint versus maybe a credit sensitivity standpoint because I can understand those two things might be different.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Sure. I’ll take a shot at it. So, I mean, historical recessionary times.
And again, we’re not in that camp just yet. I mean, call me in two months, we might be. But I would say our NOI cash flow tends to flatten out. Obviously, there’s so many variables that go into it.
And I hate still talking about COVID but we really didn’t see other recessions, really didn’t see cash flow from the properties go down. They flattened. I would think not knowing exactly if and what kind of recession it is and how hard and how deep and all that other stuff, it would be hard to give you a number other than to say history would indicate our cash flow was relatively flat. We weathered pretty nicely because what tends to happen is big-ticket items tend to go on the back burner.
And the stuff that we saw in our properties tends to maintain itself. So, that would be the best guess at this point, but it is almost impossible without kind of knowing exactly what kind of market that we’re in. But again, we’re not in that camp yet and we might be later on in the year or whenever. But I would think our cash flows would be relatively flat, assuming it’s hard to say what a typical recession is anymore but I would say that’s probably the best guess at this point.
Ki Bin Kim — Analyst
OK. Thank you, David.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Sure.
Operator
Our next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Caitlin Burrows — Goldman Sachs — Analyst
Hi, again. This has been a very efficient call. I guess, maybe on retailer bankruptcies, Express and Rue21 were retailer bankruptcies of 2024, and I’m guessing you have had exposure from a rent perspective, two additional smaller ones also that maybe aren’t as obvious. So, could you comment on how the outcomes of the 2024 bankruptcies on Simon’s financials have ended up versus your expectations? And then give a broader update on the current watch list and going forward.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Well, I’ll just say in Brian’s remarks, we definitely have a decent impact from the retailer restructurings. Also, we have a little lower lease settlement income a little lower of land sales than we had budgeted. But if you put those three categories together, it’s about $0.15 that we had planned on being there that aren’t there this year. So, obviously, we factored in the Express restructurings and rue and so on.
So, those numbers are reflective of our new guidance. It doesn’t reflect if there’s a material new one coming up, but we don’t know of anyone that’s on the road. So, Brian, you can add whatever you want to add.
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Watchlist continues to be relatively flat. Those things that have happened, we had thought that they would and it planned ahead. We don’t really see much on the horizon at this point.
No new additions to the Watchlist at this point, Caitlin.
Caitlin Burrows — Goldman Sachs — Analyst
And then maybe one more, if I could. Just the contribution to the portfolio from the retailers. I think your latest comment was for flattish contribution in ’24. So, just wondering if there was any update to that and maybe your visibility or confidence in the back half of the year? Thanks.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Well, look, I think we continue to work through it. If you look at that whole Penney, SPARC, RGG, Jamestown, we basically have around $200 million plus or minus EBITDA in that kind of OPI bucket now that ABG is out. And it will be plus or minus a couple of cents here or there. Because again, we have accounting, we’ve got lots of depreciation, you don’t add that back.
And the brands within SPARC, the lower-income consumer continue to fight through a tough market for that consumer. So, there’s not a lot of new news other than the team had SPARC is working very hard. The new stuff that they’re buying is working but it continues to be a very competitive marketplace.
Caitlin Burrows — Goldman Sachs — Analyst
OK. Thank you.
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. Thank you, Caitlin. I think this wraps it up. Let me just say to everybody, thank you.
I got a lot of well wishes during this tough time for me, and I’m working at it. And appreciate all your support, and we’ll talk in the near future. Thank you.
Operator
[Operator signoff]
Duration: 0 minutes
Call participants:
Thomas Ward — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
David E. Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Brian J. McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Jeffrey Spector — Analyst
David Simon — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Jeff Spector — Analyst
Samir Khanal — Analyst
Caitlin Burrows — Goldman Sachs — Analyst
Brian McDade — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Tom Ward — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Alexander Goldfarb — Analyst
Alex Goldfarb — Analyst
Michael Goldsmith — UBS — Analyst
Craig Mailman — Analyst
Juan C. Sanabria — Analyst
Juan Sanabria — Analyst
Ronald Kamdem — Morgan Stanley — Analyst
Haendel St. Juste — Analyst
Vince Tibone — Green Street Advisors — Analyst
Greg McGinniss — Scotiabank — Analyst
Floris Van Dijkum — Analyst
Linda Tsai — Jefferies — Analyst
Mike Mueller — JPMorgan Chase and Company — Analyst
Ki Bin Kim — Analyst
More SPG analysis
All earnings call transcripts