One Wall Street analyst sees a plan that could help Rivian become a long-term winner.
Investors didn’t react well when Rivian Automotive (RIVN -0.94%) reported its first-quarter update this week. While results were largely in line with expectations, the stock slid when the company left its full-year targets intact. Investors were likely hoping for a boost in expected electric vehicle (EV) production for the year.
But not everyone was disappointed. Following the report, Needham analyst Chris Pierce reiterated a “buy” rating on Rivian shares. His $13 price target on Rivian shares would represent a jump of almost 30% from Thursday’s levels.
Pierce still thinks Rivian will be a long-term winner among the growing group of EV manufacturers for several reasons. Among them is the brand’s growing appeal to consumers. Despite slowing adoption trends from EV buyers, Rivian is looking beyond the near-term situation and moving forward with adding a next-generation mid-size sport utility vehicle platform to its lineup.
And it recently pivoted those plans to help in a way that will save the company a significant amount of capital. Rivian now plans to build its mid-size R2 vehicles at its existing manufacturing plant in Illinois. It will thus delay construction of a second facility planned for Georgia.
That allowed Rivian to reduce its capital spending plans for 2024 by $550 million to $1.2 billion. Those savings will continue into 2025 and 2026, when the R2 is expected to begin production. Management believes total savings could reach more than $2.25 billion.
Rivian expects to reach positive gross profit in this year’s fourth quarter. The Needham analyst is looking beyond the next few years and using the firm’s projected adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2028 to calculate his price target on the stock.
Based on the premise that Rivian will successfully upgrade its Illinois facility and reach the 215,000-unit capacity next year, the analyst’s optimism makes sense. Those who have long-term confidence in the brand and its execution could do well to buy Rivian stock now.
Howard Smith has positions in Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.