Prediction: Bitcoin Will Reach $80,000 in 2024

I know, I know. You probably expected me to set a higher target price for Bitcoin (BTC -1.48%). Everybody else is doing it, after all.

• Fundstrat Global Advisors partner Tom Lee sees $150,000 per coin as a “base case” in 2024.
• Analysts from British money center bank Standard Chartered recently agreed with Fundstrat’s $150,000 prediction, and said they expect another step up to $250,000 next year.
• Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood used to think that Bitcoin would hit $600,000 in 2024, on its way to a $1.5 million target by 2030. She hasn’t updated the near-term target lately, but her 2030 target now stands at $3.8 million per Bitcoin.

And to be fair, I’ve pinned a $150,000 price target on Bitcoin myself — but not for this year. I expect that milestone to be reached in 2025 or 2026. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle of price surges suggests another dramatic price gain after April’s halving of mining rewards — but don’t expect that surge to materialize right away.

Bitcoin’s price movements after halvings 1, 2, and 3

First and foremost, there’s a clear pattern to be found in Bitcoin’s price charts after each halving.

1. From the summer of 2012 to the fall of 2013, Bitcoin’s price saw significant growth. On Nov. 28, 2012, Bitcoin experienced its first halving, around the price of $12 per digital coin. By late November 2013, Bitcoin’s price peaked at approximately $1,100 in the first halving cycle.
2. On July 9, 2016, with its price at around $650, Bitcoin experienced its second halving. By December 2017, its price peaked at nearly $20,000, before falling to around $6,500 by April 2018. That was the peak period of the second Bitcoin halving cycle.
3. On May 11, 2020, it was time for the third Bitcoin halving, with the price around $9,000 as the world was first grappling with the impact of COVID-19. By November 2021, Bitcoin’s price had reached a new all-time high of nearly $69,000, reflecting increased institutional interest and widespread adoption.

You see the pattern, right? Each halving so far has been followed by an impressive price gain, but always after a significant delay. Here’s how long it took Bitcoin to reach each halving cycle’s peak, counting from the date of each mining reward reduction:

1. 1 year, 1 day
2. 1 year, 5 months, 8 days
3. 1 year, 5 months, 30 days

From this perspective, it stands to reason that the fourth halving should result in another peak price, but no earlier than the spring of 2025. Anything quicker would be a significant acceleration of the post-halving market reaction.

Why every Bitcoin halving is different

Of course, each halving event is unique. In 2012, the first one was mapping out completely uncharted waters. Four years later, investors and Bitcoin miners didn’t know whether the halving cycle would inspire similar market reactions twice. In 2020, COVID-19 threw a spanner in the works, but the same old pattern still played out in many ways.

So here we are in 2024, waiting to see exactly how the next cycle will work out. All sorts of theories have been proposed and explored, but only time will tell.

The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs started a Bitcoin price surge a few months ahead of this halving. Will the leading cryptocurrency simply follow its prior pattern from a higher starting point, or will the expected post-halving surge be undermined by a richer starting price?

When it comes to the exact shape of Bitcoin’s future price chart, your guess is as good as mine. Historical patterns suggest a slow burn in 2024, followed by a sharp spike in early 2025. The real world doesn’t always conform to previous patterns, but the market has built a pretty consistent collection of reactions to Bitcoin halving cycles.

Image source: Getty Images.

What to expect from Bitcoin in the coming years

I’m not a fan of technical analysis. Unexpected events can take the wind out of the fullest sails, or drive a select handful of stocks to new heights without warning. So I hesitate to give a specific target price for Bitcoin at the end of 2024. Previous chart squiggles quickly lose all meaning in the face of real-world surprises.

However, the long-term uptrend is undeniable, and it’s supported by the pure mathematics of Bitcoin’s inner workings. So the cryptocurrency seems poised for some modest gains as the post-halving economics evolve before our eyes, whether regulators are helping or hindering them. A 15% gain to $80,000 looks reasonable enough, followed by the usual post-halving surge next year.

Don’t expect the coin to go to the moon in 2024, but feel free to build a long-term Bitcoin position to take advantage of the fourth halving surge — followed by the fifth in 2028, the sixth in 2032, and so on.

The real Bitcoin wealth will belong to long-term investors with robust patience and the willingness to buy more Bitcoin on the inevitable dips along the way.