Is Bitcoin a Millionaire Maker?

Many investors dream of making millions in the market. Quite often these days, would-be millionaires are basing their wealth-building plans on Bitcoin (BTC -20.22%).

It’s easy to see why, of course. Bitcoin has delivered market-stomping returns in its first 15 years, many investing heavyweights expect the digital coin to reach epic prices in the long run, and crypto-based decentralized finance (DeFi) applications look ready to enter the mainstream financial culture.

But what would it take to actually make a million from Bitcoin investments? In my eyes, there are three main paths through the Bitcoin market to the millionaire destination.

1. Invest early and multiply your investment by thousands of times

The visionary investors — or, in many cases, crypto technology enthusiasts — who got in on Bitcoin during its early days have enjoyed staggering rewards. The digital currency was worthless at first. In one famous example, a Florida man bought two pizzas in 2010 for 10,000 Bitcoin. Each pizza was worth $307.5 million at today’s Bitcoin prices. I sure hope those pies were tasty.

The pizza buyer was more of a crypto-tech pioneer than an investor, of course. Maybe the currency wouldn’t have soared the way it did if he hadn’t made that move. It was a silly Bitcoin test at the time, and the pizzas would have been cheap in hindsight if the Bitcoin project failed.

But if you recognized the transformative potential of this revolutionary digital transaction ledger and investing accordingly, your initial Bitcoin investments may have multiplied by thousands of times. This path requires tremendous insight, patience, and a willingness to take on substantial risk. And honestly, you needed a generous helping of luck.

2. Invest a lot of money today, aiming to double or triple your large investment fairly quickly

Another approach is to allocate a significant amount of capital to Bitcoin today, with the goal of doubling or tripling your investment as early as 2025.

That’s the approach of existing millionaires such as Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood and MicroStrategy (MSTR -4.22%) chairman Michael Saylor. They expect Bitcoin to reach million-dollar prices per coin in the long run thanks to widespread adoption and an anti-inflationary system design. Moreover, they expect the price to skyrocket pretty quickly based on the halving and spot-price ETF developments.

Wood, for example, thinks the cryptocurrency could reach $3.8 billion per coin in 2030. That target works out to Bitcoin doubling in price every year for six years, on average. The road to that plateau surely won’t be smooth, given the cyclical nature of Bitcoin halvings and of cryptocurrency prices in general. But let’s say you agree that Bitcoin should double in price over a certain time span. The easy way to a million-dollar investment would be to start with $500,000 and let the market forces play out.

While this strategy carries less risk than the first scenario, it still demands a keen understanding of the market and the ability to time your entries and exits effectively. And it also requires a large original investment. The math is very simple: A bigger bet can reach your lofty return target with a smaller gain.

3. Take a long-term approach, patiently adding to your Bitcoin investment for years

The third and most prudent path is to gradually build your Bitcoin holdings over an extended period, as part of a diversified investment portfolio. By consistently adding to your position and allowing your investment to compound over time, you can potentially achieve life-changing wealth without exposing yourself to excessive volatility.

So maybe Cathie Wood’s analysis makes sense but you’re happy to wait until 2030. In that case, buying 26% of a Bitcoin today should get the job done at a total cost of $17,400.

You might prefer Michael Saylor’s more long-term analysis. His base scenario involves Bitcoin prices soaring to $13 million by the year 2045. The digital currency would then be worth about $280 trillion and hold 7% of the global wealth. With this target, you could invest $515 in one-thirteenth of a Bitcoin today and wait for 21 years. The average annual rate of return is a princely 29% in this case — still outlandishly high but much lower than doubling each year.

Again, the math is simple. The longer you can stay invested in a winning asset, the larger your final return should be.

Caveats

Of course, there are many caveats to all of my forward-looking projections.

• I’m assuming that the cryptocurrency market as a whole should gain value over time, and that Bitcoin will stay in the vanguard.
• Alternative wealth management coins or entirely different digital money solutions won’t kick Bitcoin off the throne.
• Progress in artificial intelligence and quantum computing won’t break the currency’s encrypted security model.
• Most importantly, consumers and professional money managers around the world need to get used to this newfangled digital coin idea.

And for the early investor group, the big gains already happened and there’s no way to repeat that surge. Congratulations on your life-changing gains, but the rest of us can’t really plan on a windfall like that.

Pick your path (or maybe you already did)

Yes, Bitcoin will almost certainly make more millionaires unless the digital ledger idea falls apart. Making a million with Bitcoin investments will require the same long-term patience and significant investment stakes as any other million-dollar investment return.

So buckle up for the long haul, put a hefty chunk of money to work in Bitcoin itself or Bitcoin-tracking ETFs, and get ready to count your millions. Just don’t expect skyrocketing gains to turn a small investment into millions overnight. Those days of low starting prices and extreme volatility are long gone.