History doesn’t always repeat itself, but if it rhymes, that would mean great things for crypto.
Things in the crypto world are looking up. After a brutal crypto winter, many cryptocurrencies are at or near all-time highs and the future is finally looking bright once again.
Yet it’s likely going to get a whole lot brighter for one key reason — central banks around the world are beginning to cut interest rates.
The two might seem unrelated, but the ties between central bank actions and crypto market behaviors run deep. For investors, this presents a compelling opportunity. A fresh wave of liquidity could soon be injected into the market, potentially setting the stage for a major crypto boom.
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Central banks begin cutting interest rates
In recent days, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the central banks of Canada, Switzerland, and Sweden cut their benchmark interest rates. Those pivots followed some of the most aggressive rate hikes in decades, which the banks instituted in their efforts to bring down soaring inflation.
While the U.S. Federal Reserve hasn’t begun to cut rates yet, there is growing optimism among market watchers that it will do so by the end of this year. Given that the U.S. is still the largest economy in the world, that potential policy shift is viewed by many as the last domino that needs to fall to inaugurate a more favorable environment for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
Why interest rates matter to crypto
At first glance, it might seem that interest rates and cryptocurrencies exist in entirely separate spheres. Cryptos operate on decentralized networks with their own monetary policies. However, they are inextricably linked to the wider economy.
Crypto is a so-called risk-on asset class, meaning it tends to perform well when investors are broadly more willing to accept more risk in pursuit of profit. This typically happens during periods of high liquidity, when money is cheap and plentiful. For such a scenario to play out again, interest rates will have to be cut.
To understand why central bank interest rate cuts will benefit crypto, it can help to understand the impact of raising interest rates. When central banks raise interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive, which tends to reduce the amount of money circulating in the economy. High interest rates also make low-risk interest-bearing assets more attractive, further reducing the amount of money being deployed in riskier assets.
Conversely, when interest rates fall, borrowing costs decrease and liquidity increases. Lower interest rates also reduce the appeal of savings accounts and bonds. With excess capital circulating, this liquidity typically finds its way into various asset classes, including stocks, real estate, and yes, cryptocurrencies.
Historical evidence
We don’t have to look too far back to see evidence of how powerful the impact of lower interest rates can be on the crypto market. In 2020, central banks around the world slashed interest rates to near zero in response to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in an unprecedented injection of liquidity into the global financial system.
The result? The crypto market rose from roughly $190 billion to more than $2 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC -1.07%), the leading cryptocurrency, saw its price surge from about $7,000 at the beginning of 2020 to nearly $69,000 by November 2021.
One of the most impressive examples to come out of the 2021 bull market was Solana (SOL -3.09%). Riding the waves of increased liquidity (and a fair amount of speculation), in less than two years, it jumped by more than 25,000%.
Staying disciplined amid the boom
Although this round of rate cuts won’t be as dramatic as the cuts of 2020, they should still have a significant benefit on crypto. And as is common in crypto bull markets, that means some obscure cryptocurrencies will start posting astronomical gains.
However, while it’s easier said than done, it is imperative for investors to maintain a balanced perspective and not get swept up in the hype of speculation — the majority of these cryptos simply aren’t good long-term investments.
To successfully navigate this coming phase, investors will need to stay disciplined and focus on blue chip cryptocurrencies with proven track records and strong utility. Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH -0.19%), for example, meet this criteria.
Although this strategy might not be as glamorous as investing in trendy meme coins, it is one of the few proven strategies that provides investors with the kind of gains that only crypto can produce.
RJ Fulton has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.