Social Security’s trust funds are expected to be depleted by 2035, and that’s going to have an important effect on future benefits.
2035 is an important year for Social Security. Right now, that’s when the Social Security Administration believes the program’s trust funds will be depleted. Without government intervention, that could lead to 17% benefit cuts — a devastating blow to the millions of Americans who depend on it.
Because of this, it’s natural that people wonder how far their Social Security benefits will go in 2035. There’s still a lot of unknowns there, but here’s what the latest Trustees Report has to say about what average benefits will look like by then.
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Here’s what the typical Social Security benefit could look like in 2035
A lot of factors affect your Social Security benefit, including your income history, the age at which you apply, and your full retirement age (FRA). This is a government-assigned age when you become eligible for your full Social Security benefit.
The latest Social Security Trustees Report indicates that a typical worker earning the average wage index (AWI) each year (estimated at $68,793 for 2024) who claims Social Security at a FRA of 67 would receive $33,031 in annual benefits in 2035. This is given in 2024 dollars.
These projections estimate that this annual benefit would replace about 40.4% of that worker’s pre-retirement earnings. That’s about what Social Security aims to cover for workers with average earnings. But it’s a little less than what workers can expect today.
The same data found that a worker with average earnings retiring at their FRA in 2024 can expect $29,784 in annual benefits — roughly 43% of their average annual earnings over their 35 highest-earning years.
However, it’s important to realize that none of this is set in stone. We don’t know yet how the government will choose to address Social Security’s funding shortfall. When it creates a plan, this will undoubtedly change the projections of future Social Security benefits.
How you can prepare
We have no way of knowing what the final Social Security fix will look like, but there are things we can be reasonably sure won’t change. First, higher incomes during your working years will likely translate to larger Social Security benefits in retirement. So anything you can do today to boost your income — finding a better-paying job, starting a side hustle, securing a raise — will probably boost your future checks.
Second, working more years before claiming could also boost your checks. Right now, the government looks at your average monthly earnings during your 35 highest-earning years when calculating your benefit. Working at least this long helps you avoid having zero-income years in your benefit calculation that reduce your checks.
Working beyond 35 years is often helpful because many people earn more in their later years than they did starting out. Once you pass the 35-year mark, the Social Security Administration drops your lowest-earning years from your benefit calculation, raising your monthly checks.
Finally, delaying your Social Security claim will likely continue to increase your benefits. Currently, every month you wait to claim boosts your checks by anywhere from 5/12 of 1% to 2/3 of 1%. That’s 5% to 8% more per year just for waiting to claim. The government may make changes to the benefit formula that affect how quickly your checks grow or how steep the penalties are for early claiming, but delaying will probably always net you bigger checks than applying right away.
That said, claiming early is a good move for some people. If you don’t expect to live long, for example, it’s usually best to claim early and get as many checks as possible while you can. Some people also have to sign up early because they have no other way to pay their bills. If neither of those things apply to you, waiting is often the best move. You can continue growing your checks this way until you qualify for your maximum benefit at 70.
You can use the tips above to come up with a tentative claiming strategy for now. But be prepared to adjust as we get closer to 2035. Changes are almost certainly coming, and we’ll all have to adapt when they arrive.