DUOL earnings call for the period ending June 30, 2024.
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Duolingo (DUOL -2.22%)
Q2 2024 Earnings Call
Aug 07, 2024, 5:30 p.m. ET
Contents:
- Prepared Remarks
- Questions and Answers
- Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Good evening, everyone, and welcome to Duolingo’s second quarter 2024 earnings webcast. I’m Debbie Belevan, head of investor relations. Today after market closed, we released this quarter’s shareholder letter, a copy of which you can find on our IR website at investors.duolingo.com. On today’s call, we have: Luis von Ahn, our co-founder and CEO; and Matt Skaruppa, our CFO.
They’ll begin with some brief remarks before opening the call to questions. [Operator instructions] And please note, this event is being recorded. [Operator instructions] Just a reminder, we’ll make forward-looking statements regarding future events and financial performance, which are subject to material risks and uncertainties. Some of these risks have been set forth in the risk factors of our filings with the SEC.
These forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of today, and we have no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. Additionally, we’ll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures on today’s call. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be considered in isolation from, a substitute for, or superior to our GAAP results, and we encourage you to consider all measures when analyzing our performance. And with that, I will turn it over to Luis.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Debbie, and welcome, everyone. I’m excited to report that we delivered another strong quarter with daily active users growing 59% and revenue growing 41% year over year. We had a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 27%, and this marked our fifth consecutive quarter of being net income positive. We also achieved 2 milestones: surpassing 100 million monthly active users, and reaching 8 million paying subscribers.
This is particularly impressive considering that only three years ago, at the time of our IPO, we had 38 million MAUs and just under 2 million subscribers. Our top-of-funnel growth remains strong, driven both by new users and those returning to the app after having been away for over a month, and that’s across both more and less penetrated markets. Our free, fun and effective app gets better over time through continuous testing and iteration. And that’s why in Q2, our DAU growth accelerated and we reached a record high 33% DAU-to-MAU ratio.
And not only did our business perform well but we’re also making substantial progress on our long-term growth initiatives. This year, our monetization priorities are optimizing both our Family Plan and our tiered subscription plans so that we can offer learners more choices at various price points and increase LTV. We continue to see excellent growth in our Family Plan. We’ve rolled out improvements to increase engagement between family members, and we’re also helping existing individual subscribers discover and convert to Family Plan more often.
As a result of these efforts, the Family Plan now makes up about 20% of our subscribers. At the end of Q2, we began to see the impact of Duolingo Max, our highest-priced tier with AI-enabled features. The rollout of Max has progressed so that as of now, it’s available in five countries in — sorry, in five courses in 27 countries, covering about 15% of our DAUs. During Q3, you will see us expand the number of countries Max is available in.
And by year-end, we expect it to be available in most countries on both Android and iOS. This will set us up to see the impact of Max more fully in 2025. We will also be introducing new Max features that we believe will resonate with learners. This includes AI-powered immersive conversational practice, one of the most requested features over the last 10 years.
Join us at Duocon on September 24 for the unveiling of this new magical experience. I want to conclude by talking about our initiative to better serve advanced English learners, which will allow us to more effectively reach the approximately 1.6 billion English learners who aren’t on Duolingo today. We now have more advanced content in all 20 of our English courses, as well as a stand-alone English course for intermediate to advanced learners. We have exciting plans for the addition of DuoRadio and Stories to the more advanced levels of these courses.
We’re also improving how we place learners with prior proficiency, so that they feel adequately challenged but without hurting their engagement. As a reminder, our English learners initiative is a multiyear effort that we expect to monetize over the medium to long term. As you can see, we believe in investing in innovation to drive both current and long-term growth. We have very ambitious goals for our business and believe that Duolingo Max and our more advanced English content give us more options than ever before to achieve them.
Of course, this path will not be linear, but we’re excited by the huge growth opportunity we see ahead. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Matt.
Matt Skaruppa — Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Luis. I’ll provide some additional color on our Q2 results and then update our guidance for the remainder of the year. To emphasize what Luis said in his remarks, Q2 is a strong quarter for us. We reaccelerated DAU and MAU growth of 59% and 40%, respectively.
We continue to see healthy top-of-funnel growth, and we saw particular strength in resurrected users who are users who come back to the platform after more than 30 days away, thanks to a seasonal feature we launched that focused on reminding them to do their lessons. In Q2, bookings grew 38% year over year, revenue grew 41% year over year, and we posted our highest quarterly adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin. And as Luis mentioned, this is our fifth consecutive quarter being net income positive. All around, it was a strong quarter.
Going forward into the second half of the year, we feel good about the business even as we lap the incredible strength we saw in the back half of last year. For the full year, we are raising our guidance so that at the midpoint, we are guiding to year-over-year bookings and revenue growth of about 32.5% and 38.5%, respectively. Our guidance implies a year-over-year growth rate for the second half of the year of about 27%. Note that if FX rates were constant year over year, our Q3 bookings growth rate would be about 2 points higher and our full year bookings growth rate would be about 1 point higher.
To put our top-line growth into context, we grew bookings at about 40% year over year in the first half of this year, which is roughly the same rate as we grew bookings in the first half of 2023. In the second half of 2023, though, our year-over-year bookings growth accelerated materially up to about 50%. A meaningful part of that acceleration came from an extraordinary set of tailwinds. Our signature “ding” was featured in the Barbie movie, providing an incredible brand boost, and in many ways, that was indicative of our commanding presence in the zeitgeist last year.
It also helped our summer marketing campaign deliver homerun user growth. That user growth was coupled with some onetime improvements in monetization, especially in Q3 and more favorable exchange rates than today. This year, we feel good about our user growth and monetization, but we don’t expect to see the same one-off accelerating tailwinds. Lapping last year’s extraordinary growth is why we expect DAU growth to decelerate to about 50% in the second half and why we expect bookings and revenue to decelerate as well.
Moving down the income statement, we expect gross margin will be down slightly in the back half of the year as our amortization and AI costs increase with the rollout of Max. We continue to feel confident about our ability to drive increasing profitability and are raising our 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 24.5% at the midpoint, which is a full 7 points higher than 2023 and has an incremental margin of 42%. For Q3, our adjusted EBITDA guide is about $41 million or roughly 80% higher than the same quarter last year. As a reminder, our profitability typically varies a bit from quarter to quarter throughout the year.
For Q3, we expect to see about 5 points of quarter-over-quarter deleverage in the margin and are guiding to 22% at the midpoint. This is mainly driven by increased hiring in R&D as we add a significant portion of our new engineering product and design hires in Q3. We’ll also see seasonally higher sales and marketing spend this quarter. G&A should remain relatively flat as a percentage of revenue.
For Q4, we expect to see slight leverage across all opex categories, resulting in about 1 point of quarter-over-quarter margin expansion compared to Q3. Note that overall, we shifted about $3 million of expense from Q2 into the second half of the year. Finally, we ended the quarter with approximately 49.4 million fully diluted shares outstanding using the quarter end closing price. And in 2024, we expect to end the year with about 1% to 1.5% net dilution from equity issued to employees, which is similar to the dilution we had last year.
And with that, I’ll turn it back to Luis.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Matt. As you can tell, I’m excited about the road ahead and confident in our ability to achieve our long-term goals. And now, we would be happy to take your questions. I’ll turn it back to Debbie to manage the queue.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. Thanks, Luis. [Operator instructions] And our first question comes from Andrew Boone at JMP Securities.
Andrew Boone — Analyst
Thanks so much for taking my questions. Luis, you just defined the top of funnel as being healthy for new and returning users. Some third-party data sources suggest that downloads have slowed. Maybe this is exactly what the comp that Matt is talking about.
But is there anything you guys can help us understand as we think about new user growth and the opportunity to bring more users into the Duolingo ecosystem?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Andrew. So first of all, we don’t comment on third-party data. If you want to watch it or see it, you do you.
But in general, what we’d like to say, we have users in every single country in the world. Some countries are more mature than others because we’ve been in there for much longer. So the way we think about it internally is more top of funnel, which is brand-new users, which are usually downloads and they’re brand-new users. But we also look at returning users, people who haven’t been around the app for a while, typically longer than 30 days.
In countries that are more penetrated, more mature, the number of people that are coming back after a long period of inactivity is much higher than the brand-new users just because we’ve touched a good fraction of the country. So generally, this is what we’re looking at, and we feel pretty good about top of funnel because of that that just people — it’s very rare to see people completely stop using Duolingo. What they do is they stop and then, they come back six months later or they come back a year later, and so that top of funnel feels pretty good.
Andrew Boone — Analyst
So to follow up on that question, is there a way to think about cumulative users for Duolingo, right? If we think about the 2 billion people that are actively learning a language, how do we think about the number of learners that you guys have touched within that opportunity?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
It’s a good question. That’s not something we really track so I don’t really know it off the top of my head. Yes, it’s not something we really track.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. Thanks, Andrew. And the next question comes from Bryan Smilek of J.P. Morgan.
Bryan Smilek — JPMorgan Chase and Company — Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking the questions. So results were quite strong across DAU growth acceleration, engagement at record highs and social media impression is almost doubling year on year. So can you just talk about the health of the product refresh cycle into the back half and just overall social media strategies as you comp stuff like Barbie from last year?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I mean, product-wise, we’re very excited about a lot of the stuff that we’re about to either already testing or putting out. There’s a lot of new social features. I mean we talked about — in our shareholder letter, we talked about the friends streak, which is basically a streak that you keep with your friends. So a regular streak is just a streak with Duolingo.
Now you and a friend, it’s up to five friends, but you and a friend can have a streak and you both have to use the app every day. And if one of you doesn’t do it, you lose your friends streak. So it gives you a really good incentive to not disappoint your friends, so that’s an example of a feature. But there’s a lot of great social features that are coming out.
We have a lot of monetization features. We’re also expanding a lot our teaching features, so I feel pretty good about that. And because of that, we expect the growth to continue being strong. As Matt said, we are lapping a very strong year.
So we’re expecting that for a while, our user growth is gonna be about 50%, and that’s kind of what we’re looking at. And in terms of social media impressions, we measure our social media impressions in billions. And this, by the way, to remind you, this is organic. We’re not paying for these impressions.
So we’re getting billions of social impressions and we expect that to continue.
Bryan Smilek — JPMorgan Chase and Company — Analyst
Awesome. And then, I guess, just a follow-up on Max. Available to 15% of DAUs right now. Could you just share some signals around monetization? When should we expect Max to show up in the P&L, understanding it’s a multiyear endeavor? And I guess is there anything that could curb the pace of rollout as we enter the back half?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So as you said, we’ve rolled out Max. It’s now in 27 countries, five courses, and that’s available — that’s about 15% of our DAUs. Our expectation is that we’re going to continue rolling it out through the rest of the year.
And by the end of the year, more than — the majority of our users will have access to it at least. And the reason for that is because we feel good about it. We’re giving it to more and more users because we feel good about it. We’re also not only rolling it out, we’re gonna be adding new features to it.
The one that I’m most excited about is actual conversational practice with one of our characters, Lily. If you don’t know which one that is, that’s the purple-haired girl that is not impressed at all about anything you do. So you’re gonna be able to talk to her. And it’s a really awesome experience.
So our sense is that our users are going to love it. Of course, hard to know exactly without a feature that we haven’t really put out, but we’re very excited about it. And to reiterate what you said also is we are still iterating on Super Duolingo, which is something that we put out probably seven years ago. So we’re gonna be iterating on Max for many years.
It’s just by the end of the year, it will be at least mostly rolled out.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Bryan. Next question comes from Ralph Schackart at William Blair.
Ralph Schackart — Analyst
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Luis, just curious on the Max product. As you think about that opportunity there, sort of an innovation platform, is that sort of an opportunity for you to develop and test new products and eventually sort of, I guess, see if those could roll out to some of the lower tiers over time? So the first question.
And second question, I know you get this question from time to time so I guess I’ll ask it. But often, you’re asked what percent of your paying subs do you see as sort of an opportunity. I think maybe last time you were asked that, maybe I’m wrong, is pre-Max or maybe before Max with scale. But now that you have Max sort of in the fold, just kind of curious if you can sort of give us an update on that as well.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
OK. So your first question is about if Max is a testing ground for features that maybe we can then put in different tiers. That’s for sure true. Basically, the way we’re seeing is we are committed to the three-tier strategy.
We have free, we have Super, we have Max. And we’re going to see where the features belong. Right now, a lot of the AI-based features are in Max because it costs us money to serve those so they’re in the highest tier. Over time, we expect that the price of some of those AI features will come down, at least for the cost of them for us, will come down because we’re expecting that the price — sorry, the cost of LLMs is going down.
At that time, we may make a decision that some of those features belong in Super or even the free tier. But it’s hard to say exactly what will happen. My sense is that if you look at it over time, what’s gonna be happening is that the heaviest features on AI, the ones that use most calls to a large language model will probably remain in Max, and then, anything that we can either cache or just doesn’t require that many calls, we’ll put in lower tiers. That’s probably what’s going to happen.
Now in terms of penetration, I think your question is just how high can penetration get either for Max or for paying — either for Max or kind of any paying subscriber like either Super or Max. We don’t know. I mean we — in terms of penetration, overall, paying subscribers were the latest number were above 8%. We seem to be increasing about 1 percentage point every year.
That’s what’s happened historically. We expect that to continue happening but I don’t know the exact numbers, and it’s not clear to us where it will end. I mean, I think, it will be higher than what it is now. But I don’t know if some people ask, is it 15%? Is it 30%? We just don’t know.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. Next up, we have Curt Nagle from BofA.
Curtis Nagle — Analyst
Great. Thanks for taking the question. First, maybe on the Family Plan, right, progressing nicely, up a bit since I think last time we spoke. You have a number of initiatives in the works to increase adoption.
I guess just how fulsome are they now in terms of — in the actual product? And where do you think we could see rates of total subs go by year-end?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. We’re — just to remind people of Family Plan, so the Family Plan was something that we built a few years ago and didn’t touch. We just built it, left it there, and it grew by itself, which was awesome. Once we realized it was growing so much by itself, we put a team behind it.
The team has been there not that long. It’s a few months so they’re kind of really getting their stride. But already, they’ve made a number of changes and we’re starting — we’ve started seeing more and more penetration of the Family Plan. At this point, about 20% of our paying subscribers are paying for the Family Plan.
And we expect that number to continue growing. Some people are going to ask us a similar question on the previous question, which is how high can that get? Again, same answer. I don’t know how high it can get. But we do expect it to get higher than 20%.
And it’s because we’re just adding a lot more features. For example, things where families can engage with each other a lot more. And not only are we adding features, we’re also making the Family Plan a lot more well known among our subscribers. Many of them don’t even know that there’s a Family Plan.
So we’re just putting it in front of the right people more often. And so, what I can say is that by the end of the year, we expect the number — the fraction of subscribers to be on the Family Plan to be higher than what it is now, but I just don’t know how much higher.
Curtis Nagle — Analyst
Makes sense. And then, just going back to some of the points on top of funnel in terms of existing or last, however you want to define it, users coming back, what do conversion rates look like in terms of paying users for those users? Is it higher than average?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I think Matt knows that one better than me.
Matt Skaruppa — Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. When it comes to the actual kind of free trial conversion rates, they convert relatively similarly, the new users and the returning users. They start free trial slightly different — at slightly different rates. And so, we actually see a nice opportunity to continue to drive those rates higher for both types of users over time, so there’s good opportunity there for both.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Just one last color. Historically, we’ve spent a lot more time optimizing new users than resurrected users, but we’re starting to work more in resurrected users because it just makes sense to do that.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Next question comes from Alex Sklar of Raymond James.
Alex Sklar — Raymond James — Analyst
Great. Thank you. Luis or Matt, just following up on Bryan’s earlier question on that new Max availability disclosure. Can you talk about how that availability looks as a percentage of your existing paid subscriber base? And I’m curious if you’re seeing any notable difference in terms of Max adoption from free users versus Max adoption from your Super base today.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Matt, do you know? I think it’s pretty similar to paying subscribers. I think it’s pretty similar to DAUs, it’s probably 15% in terms of availability.
Matt Skaruppa — Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I think definitely, it will — over the next little bit, it will converge so they’ll be close over the next couple of quarters, for sure.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
And now, in terms of — we — there’s appetite for Max from both free users and also from current paying subscribers. So we’re working on both, putting the offers out for the free users but also cross-creating from the paying subscribers. And we’re seeing uptake from both.
Alex Sklar — Raymond James — Analyst
OK. I appreciate that color. And then, Matt, maybe just one follow-up for you. The subscription bookings continue to trend really nicely and now making up a bigger piece of total bookings.
So I was just curious on the non-subscription bookings, so the other three buckets. Can you just comment on what you saw trends in the bookings there and anything to flag for the outlook?
Matt Skaruppa — Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, no, you’re absolutely right to start with the fact that we are a subscription business, and you’re going to continue to see our subscription business grow faster than the other lines. And so, over time, we just — the trends you just identified will continue. And that’s by design. We think that the subscription product is a better user experience and it’s a better economic vehicle for us.
So I think you’ll expect those trends to continue. Each of the other lines of business makes up less than 10% of revenue. So ads is 8%, IAP is 6%, DET is 6%, something like this. So they have trends in them.
Ads, for example, has grown a little slower so far this year, so as IAP. Both of those have been, we don’t have a ton of resources working to grow those. I think in the back half of the year, we’ll probably devote a little bit more resources to both ads and IAP so they might grow a little bit faster but still slower than subscriptions. DET, as you know, is our testing product.
That business has been growing nicely. I think in the back half of the year, we expect it to grow a little bit slower than it did last year because there’s kind of an industrywide Visa issue going on, which has slowed down some of the test-taking growth. But again, all of these movements are pretty small and on the margin. Again, we’re gonna be focused on driving subscription growth higher.
And like you said, it’s been growing really nicely.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. The next question comes from Shweta Khajuria at Wolfe Research.
Shweta Khajuria — Analyst
Hello. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask about the resilience in softening macro environment. You have the subscription piece, you have the advertising piece, but just remind us what you’ve seen in the past as perhaps maybe there’s increasing concern on consumer spend and just the macro environment right now.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, that’s a good question. I mean we’re seeing what you’re seeing in terms of the external world. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the external world. When we look at our numbers, we’re not seeing anything.
I mean there’s — our consumers don’t seem to be reacting to anything. There’s nothing worrying. In the past, we’ve had similar situations where there’s uncertainty in the world. And when we look at our consumers, we just can’t see anything.
And we don’t really know why that is. I’m not going to say that we are recession-proof. We just don’t know because we’ve never really gone through a recession. But what I will say is that because we have such a good free tier, what’s happening is that people who — for whom $6 a month is a lot of money, they’re just not paying us because they’re just using the free tier.
So whenever there’s like recession and the consumer is maybe cutting down, etc., we just don’t see it very much because the people who are paying us, for them, $6 a month is usually just not a lot. So we just haven’t seen anything like that.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. The next question comes from Ryan MacDonald at Needham.
Ryan MacDonald — Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Congrats on a nice quarter. Luis, I wanted to talk about in the shareholder letter, the international efforts.
And you mentioned the marketing efforts you’ve made in Japan as sort of the — and the impressive returns you’ve been generating from those investments and sort of that being a playbook for international expansion. Can you just, one, remind us when you started investing in Japan to sort of give us a sense of what the payback period on those returns? And two, how quickly do you expect to start replicating that playbook in Japan into the other, I think it was about 20 targeted countries or languages for that advanced English learner?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So what we mentioned in the shareholder letter is that we now have a playbook for international market that we feel pretty good about in terms of penetrating new markets. And Japan was an example. We’ve actually done that playbook in a number of other markets and it’s worked very well.
I mean, these are markets like Germany and France, where the idea, and it’s a pretty similar playbook. The idea is you start at the beginning with a little bit of performance marketing to kick-start a little more growth than what was there before. Then you usually hire one or maybe more than one country marketing manager that starts making our usual social content but adapted to that country. And then, we start a TikTok account and an Instagram account, etc., adapted to that country.
And it has worked every single time. Basically, if you look at our TikTok accounts across all the different countries, they’re all very popular. The Japan one is popular, the France one is popular, the Germany one is popular, all the different ones, the Brazil one is popular. And this works pretty well.
It takes — to give you context, it takes about a year to get our act together in a country. Japan, we probably start investing more heavily probably about two, two and a half years ago, give or take. But we’ve been seeing returns in Japan for a little while now. So my sense is for a given country, it takes us about a year to get our act together.
Ryan MacDonald — Analyst
That’s helpful. And then, as — maybe as a follow-up to that, as you think about sort of the targeted sort of 20 countries or languages for the advanced English learner content and trying to get — bring those learners onto the platform, maybe how many of those countries today do you feel like you start to get your act together, so to speak, and just to give us a sense of where you are on that progression of that investment.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So just to clarify something so we have 20 English courses. What that means is that we have 20 different base languages from which you can learn English. So base language could be Spanish, Spanish speakers learning English.
Another one is Chinese, Chinese speakers are learning English, etc. So it’s not exactly countries because, for example, Spanish covers Spain and all of Latin America, except for Brazil. So these courses are based on the language that people are speaking, and we have 20 of those. And in addition to those 20, we have another course, which is monolingual.
That means learning English from English. That’s to cover all other countries or the ones that don’t speak these 20 languages. And so, basically, with this, I think we’ll be able to cover pretty much the whole world and we’ll be able to penetrate them. Now in terms of the different geographies, there’s a number of them that we’re just much less penetrated in that than we’re currently.
I mean, typically, we’re pretty highly penetrated in the U.S., maybe even Western Europe. But then, outside of that, we’re just at the beginning stages. This includes countries in Asia. Even Japan, we’re just not all that penetrated in Japan, Korea, etc.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. Next question comes from Arvind Ramnani at Piper Sandler.
Arvind Ramnani — Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. Yeah, I guess, just a couple of quick questions. In terms of the stat that you shared, 20% of your users have been using — they’re at 365-day streak —
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Or longer.
Arvind Ramnani — Analyst
So when we look at it, can you provide some historical context? How has that moved up or like what should we look at that? And I mean, what do we make out of that number? I mean, it’s a nice interesting stat. You chose to put it on Page 1. Can you just share like what gets you excited from a historical perspective?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it’s a very exciting step for us because just to put it in perspective, that means 20%, that’s like — it’s about 7 million daily active users have a streak longer than 365, meaning they have used Duolingo every single day for a year or longer. That — we find that that’s pretty impressive. I mean there’s 7 million of these people that have kind of not missed a year — a day for at least a year or longer. That number keeps growing, and it’s growing pretty fast.
I mean, I think, we put out a similar number, the same stat maybe a year and a half ago or so, and it was like 3 million back then. So that number just keeps going up pretty fast, and it’s because — that just gives you an idea of how sticky the product is.
Arvind Ramnani — Analyst
Yes. And I guess, can you share not necessarily a specific number here but like these people are sticky. Do they end up having a disproportionate number of paid users or unpaid users when compared to the other 80%?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I mean, in general, the more you use Duolingo, the more likely you are to subscribe. And that’s, of course, not true for everybody. But in general, if you have a long streak, it is more likely that you’re a subscriber. And that makes sense.
It’s just you get more use out of it and at some point, you want to either support us or turn off the ads or something like that.
Arvind Ramnani — Analyst
OK. Perfect. And then, just one last question. I mean certainly very impressive metrics through the print.
And you raised guidance for the year, I get it. But it feels like a lot of the guide was raised in line with the 2Q performance. So I mean, just given the momentum, like should we look at this kind of raised guidance as like a little bit conservative or how should we look at it? Because it feels like there’s really good momentum in the business.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, there is good momentum in the business and we feel good about it. But I just have to remind you in terms of what good momentum looks like, we’re guiding this year to more than 30% growth in bookings, but we’re lapping a year that had 45% growth in bookings, which in turn was lapping another year that had 45% growth in bookings. So we’re just — it’s just growing really fast, and so that’s that. We feel pretty strong about that.
Now because we’re lapping such a strong year, in particular, H2 of last year was quite strong so we put out the guidance that we saw and we slightly raised it but we feel good about it.
Arvind Ramnani — Analyst
Yeah. Then just last question. I mean it feels like your DAU growth is again back to sort of defying gravity, right? Like it’s just back to this like kind of acceleration. And like in the past couple of quarters, you’ve — late last year, you were talking a little bit conservatively but you’re back to this like acceleration in DAU growth.
And like how sustainable is this, right? Is this like 55%, 60% is like a number we should get kind of comfortable with over the next couple of years? I mean it just feels like it’s constantly defying gravity.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, we feel good about our DAU growth. I will say, in Matt’s prepared remarks, our belief is that this is going to, for a while, stay at around 50%, not quite 60%, but it’s for a while. So that’s our belief and which is exponential growth, 50% year over year, and that’s kind of how we think it’s gonna be.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Next question comes from Aaron Kessler at Seaport.
Aaron Kessler — Seaport Research Partners — Analyst
Great. You hear me?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yep.
Aaron Kessler — Seaport Research Partners — Analyst
Great. Maybe just on other verticals adoption. I don’t think you talked much about that. Anything to highlight on some of the other verticals, math, etc.? And then, I think there’s still a little bit of concern in the market just around potentially AI replacing maybe the necessity to learn a foreign language.
Just it would be good to get your thoughts on that, Luis, just maybe your thoughts on potential AI, I guess, replacement, the need for foreign language learning longer term.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Sure. OK. So first question was about other verticals, in particular, you can now learn Math and music on Duolingo. We feel very good about the growth.
They’re still small compared to languages and they’re gonna be small for a little while. They’re only on iOS. We’re about to put them on Android in the next couple of months. You’re going to see them on Android and that will make them grow more, but we feel pretty good about the growth.
In terms of what we’re working on each one of them, in both cases, really, we’re working on adding a lot more content. With Math, we probably have an order of magnitude less content than we would have for like French or Spanish. So we just need to add more content. And same with Music.
And so, we’re working on adding more content and also on making them more engaging, and I feel pretty good about the results of that. In terms of AI, this is not — people say this but this is not something we’re particularly worried about for a number of reasons. For, one, language translation and also automatic immediate voice-to-voice language translation has been really good for like 10 years. I mean, Google Translate.
The app is on my phone, has been there for a while, and it’s been really good. The main use for that, and it works really well, is if you kind of don’t really care about learning any French and you go to France and you find somebody who doesn’t speak English, you can use the app and you can communicate really well, but that has been true for like 10 years. It turns out most of our users are not that user. Most of our users are either people who are hobbyists because they’re like just they find that they’re interested in Swedish or whatever.
And we just don’t think that AI is going to replace that. Similarly to people are learning just, and AI has been good at just for 20 years, so hobbyists is one big group. And then, the other big group is people who actually want to learn the language for either work purpose or — these aren’t particularly English learners. That’s also not a — you’re not going to go work at a company in English and have to carry your phone or have to use some sort of headphone device.
So it’s just not something we’re particularly worried about, and we just haven’t seen that be any kind of problem for our users.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Next question comes from Eric Sheridan at Goldman Sachs.
Eric Sheridan — Analyst
Thanks for taking the question. Maybe I can follow up on that point. Would love to go a little bit deeper on how you’re thinking about an incremental dollar invested in content and how the return on that content investment can continue to drive longer and longer engagement sessions with folks and continue to extend some of The Street dynamics that you’ve called out and sort of maybe just tease out a little bit of how you think about return on that spend or duration of potential for that spend in the broader portfolio. That would be number one.
And then, number two, I know I always ask Matt this, but just incremental margins, updated view, continues to be an area where you’re surprising more of the upside as the business continues to grow and mature. But just updated views on incremental margins and investing back in the business versus letting some of that incremental margin fall to the bottom line.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I can take the first part, Matt, with the content. I mean, generally, we’ve been adding content to the app ever since we launched the app 12 years ago or whatever. Over the last year and a half, we’ve seen an amazing acceleration in terms of the speed of content that we can add. A lot of it has to do with AI, not entirely.
Some of it is just better processes from ourselves. But a lot of it has to do with AI and we’re really excited about that. And it’s not just that it’s cheaper to add the content. That’s interesting and that’s good.
It helps our margins and I’m sure Matt loves that. But what I’m more excited about is that nowadays, we can create certain pieces of content so fast that these are things that just we couldn’t do before. A good example is a few years ago, a feature was proposed to me that — it was a feature where you could like listen to these kind of podcast-type episodes inside the app. And I was told that it was going to take five years to create the content for this.
And I immediately shut down that feature. I said no, no, no, we’re not going to make that. I don’t want to spend five years creating content for anything. Today, we ended up building a pretty similar feature, and it turns out we can create all of that content in a matter of months.
And because we can create all that content in a matter of months, I greenlit that feature because I’m like, yes, sure, why not? I spend a couple of months doing the content and do that. So I’m very excited about the fact that this just allows us to create a lot more engaging content. And things that before, it’s not that they were impossible to create but they were prohibitive to the point where I was just not allowing it. So that’s one of the main things that we’re excited about with content.
Matt Skaruppa — Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. And then, on the incremental margin point, Eric, again, we are definitely proud of the fact that when we — in 2022, our adjusted EBITDA margin was 4 points and now we’re guiding at the full year to 24.5% so 20 extra points in two years of margin is great and it requires higher incremental margins. A minor point on Q2. We had about a 52% incremental margin.
If you were to adjust for the time shift that I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it’s probably 45% incremental margin, so lower. Still higher than our long-term target. If you look at the full year guide, obviously, we’re projecting the incremental margins to trend down a little bit in the back half of the year. But your point notwithstanding, we think that we can do both.
The business has scaled really nicely. It’s got high gross margins. So we can achieve our capital allocation strategy, which is, first and foremost, investing in R&D in the business to drive organic growth in that flywheel and drop a good portion down to the bottom line. So I don’t see it changing in the near term or any updating of that long-term target, but we’re happy with it.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Eric. Our next questioner is Chris Kuntarich from UBS. He cannot get on Zoom right now so he asked me to read his question. Two-part question.
First, housekeeping on the 50% DAU growth comment. Was that previously low to mid-50s? And his second question is, can you talk a bit about what you’ve accomplished over the last 12 months from a product monetization perspective as it relates to English learning opportunity and how we should think about your focus areas on the English learning opportunity over the next 12 months?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
OK. The first is a clarification. I mean I think it’s just what we are saying is this quarter, Q2, we saw 59% DAU growth year over year. What we’re saying is that we expect that to be around 50% for a good period of time.
That’s what we’re saying that’s a clarification. In terms of what we’ve done for English learners, some number of things. I mean the first thing is we’ve added more advanced content. That content, it took us a while to add it, but at this point, the content is there, and so, that’s great.
We have intermediate to advanced content for English learners. That was something that was needed in order to attack English learners. We’ve also worked on placing the English learners into the appropriate place in the course, so these are people who have prior proficiency. The thing about English learners is that most of them have some amount of prior proficiency.
And so, we’ve worked on placing them to the right place. And then, the next step is, once we’re really happy with this, we’re going to start marketing to let the world know that Duolingo is good for advanced English because most people just don’t know that. And once that’s there, my sense is that we’re gonna be able to do a lot of things to monetize these users. But the first thing is to get these users to come in, which they’re not there yet.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. Next question comes from Ross Sandler at Barclays.
Ross Sandler — Analyst
Great. Had a question to follow up on the like topic of AI, how you guys are using it in the app. So Luis, the foundation models are getting much more performant, faster, and more multimodal. So how is that informing your product road map? And how do you see the interaction layer of your consumers engaging with either Lily or whatever you guys come up with down the road in a more multimodal context using these AI models?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we’re very excited about AI in general. I mean the two big uses are creating content that is kind of premade, and then, it’s served to the users. That’s kind of what I was talking about in the previous question, where we’re able to create experiences like listening to a two-minute mini podcast in the language that you’re learning. All of that is — a lot of it is created with AI and we’re very excited with that.
And then, the other big part is kind of live interaction, where you’re gonna be talking to a character, etc. We’re gonna be putting a lot into that. Certainly, the multimodal models are helping like GPT-4o because we’re gonna be doing voice to voice. And so that helps a lot, and so, we’re really happy.
I mean, if you play around with this feature of practicing conversation with Lily, it’s pretty magical, actually. The other amazing thing about it is she has a memory, she remembers. So whenever she calls you or you call her, she tells you, “Oh, it’s you again.” And then, she may ask you about whatever it is that you were talking about last time. She’ll make fun of you for having forgotten something.
So it’s pretty magical, actually.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. Great. Next question comes from Mark Mahaney at Evercore.
Mark Mahaney — Analyst
Two questions. One, I love the Japan data point, and I want to try to figure out is I think in the U.S., you have kind of high single-digit percent penetration of people who are learning languages and interested in learning languages. That’s your own work. Are there any international markets and maybe it’s Japan that come anywhere close to that where you think that you’ve got penetration that’s kind of high single digits or even double digits of the language — potential language learners in that market?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
The U.S. is a relatively highly penetrated country for us. There are others that are probably similar to the U.S. My sense is Western Europe is close to the U.S.
Actually, the U.K. is about the same as the U.S. But Western Europe is close to the U.S. Japan is not there yet.
Japan is much less penetrated than the U.S. And if you look at other Asian countries, I mean, for example, China is about a 10th of the penetration as the U.S. So generally U.S. and Western Europe are the more penetrated markets.
Mark Mahaney — Analyst
OK. And then, I want to follow up one more time. I know both Eric and Ross asked you this question. I’m really intrigued by the deployment of AI by content companies, by app companies, and investors in The Street are so focused on the derivatives in the chip sector and in the app sector — I mean, sorry, the chip sector and the infrastructure sector but not in the app sector.
And there are companies — I mean, people so focused on how AI could disrupt Duolingo and there’s not enough focus on how you’re using AI and how you could use it in the future to create just dramatically more engaging content, like it’s not like you haven’t been involved with AI for a long period of time. So just talk about like when you think about how GenAI tools can really change Duolingo and make it just dramatically more engaging, like you peer through that looking glass, like how much visibility do you think you have and how much more, how much better the product could be over the next couple of years? Do you think like you’ve got a quarter visibility and then, there’s a whole bunch of new hallways that could open up? So just riff on that a little bit, Luis.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I’m generally extremely excited about what AI could do for us. Of course, the easiest to see is conversational practice just because these are large language models. They’re supposed to have — the L is language there. This is gonna be really good for conversational practice.
And I really think that’s actually gonna be a lot more impactful than people think because you really are gonna be able to practice with somebody that gets down to your level of the language, and you can — and she has a memory. And the other really nice thing about that is it’s much better than practicing with a human in that if you’re practicing with a human, you’re usually shy in the language that you’re learning. I mean, if you’ve already learned the language, it’s pretty hard unless you’re an extreme extrovert. It’s pretty hard to get your few words out in front of another person.
But in front of an AI, you have no problem because you kind of don’t care. So we’re very excited about that. But I think there’s gonna be many other things. Another thing that I’m pretty excited about is being able to explain Math concepts to you with diagrams.
Language models are not quite there yet but I think it’s going to — either with fine-tuning or some sort of specific training, I think, will be able to explain almost any Math concept to you with a clever diagram. That’s much better than reading two paragraphs of explanation. So I’m very excited about that. I think we’ll be able to teach Math significantly more effectively because of that.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Mark. And our last question comes from Wyatt Swanson at D.A. Davidson.
Wyatt Swanson — D.A. Davidson — Analyst
Hey, guys, thanks for the question. I had a question on resurrected users that you called out. Could you talk a bit about how your initiatives have changed on driving users back to the platform? And could you maybe give some color as to how much engagement these resurrected users are driving?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I mean, over time, we are shifting more and more work to people that we’ve seen before because there’s just so many of them that lapse from Duolingo for six months and then come back. So we’re spending effort on that. And I think there’s a lot of room because we have just not worked on them as much.
So I think there’s room on monetizing them better. There is room on getting them to have better experiences coming back. I think that’s what I can say. We’re working on it and it’s getting better over time.
Wyatt Swanson — D.A. Davidson — Analyst
OK. Fair enough. And then, I had one on the intermediate English course. I know it’s really early, but just in terms of users enrolling, is it primarily new users that are coming on to the platform that find out that there’s advanced English? Or is it users that are already enrolled in basic English, they see the intermediate now and they’re moving up?
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
It’s both. At the moment, I think it’s more of the current users, but that’s partly because we have done very little to tell people that there’s more advanced content. We’re gonna be doing more over the next, call it, year and a half. So we’re getting both but it’s more the current ones.
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
OK. We have no more questions so I’ll just turn it back to Luis.
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you, Debbie. I’d just like to thank everyone for joining us, and we look forward to seeing you at Duocon next month.
Duration: 0 minutes
Call participants:
Debbie Belevan — Head of Investor Relations
Luis von Ahn — Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Matt Skaruppa — Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Boone — Analyst
Bryan Smilek — JPMorgan Chase and Company — Analyst
Ralph Schackart — Analyst
Curtis Nagle — Analyst
Curt Nagle — Analyst
Alex Sklar — Raymond James — Analyst
Shweta Khajuria — Analyst
Ryan MacDonald — Analyst
Arvind Ramnani — Analyst
Aaron Kessler — Seaport Research Partners — Analyst
Eric Sheridan — Analyst
Ross Sandler — Analyst
Mark Mahaney — Analyst
Wyatt Swanson — D.A. Davidson — Analyst
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