Nvidia’s investors may have become accustomed to its incredible performance.
Nvidia (NVDA 3.54%) stock has been on an unprecedented run for a company its size. In 2023, the stock rose nearly 240%. While 2024 hasn’t been nearly as good, it has still been impressive, with Nvidia’s stock rising around 108% so far.
Investors have gotten a bit spoiled by Nvidia’s performance over the past two years, and the status quo may lead some to think Nvidia could double again in the next year. Is this possible?
AI is driving the demand for Nvidia’s GPUs
Nvidia’s rise has been directly tied to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) computing. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) are instrumental in training AI models, as they can process multiple calculations in parallel. Nvidia’s products are pretty much undisputed as the best choice in the space, so it naturally became the top pick for any company looking to build out its AI computing infrastructure. The key here is that these companies don’t buy one or two GPUs; they connect thousands of these devices to create a machine that can quickly process incredible amounts of information.
As a result of this demand, Nvidia’s sales have gone through the roof.
NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending July 28), its revenue rose 122% year over year to $30 billion. Its data center business had the best quarter, with revenue rising 154% year over year to $26.3 billion. One thing to note here is that it also rose 16% quarter over quarter, which shows demand is still ramping up.
The performance isn’t going away, either. In Q3, management expects $32.5 billion in revenue.
Clearly, Nvidia’s business is crushing it, and demand is still increasing. But is this enough to cause the stock to double?
Nvidia has a lot of success already priced into the stock
For Nvidia’s stock to double, the company would need to be worth $5.2 trillion. For context, the world’s largest company is Apple, which is worth under $3.4 trillion.
That’s a tall task in just a year, and it’s unlikely that it could be accomplished in this time.
Why? Because all of Nvidia’s growth is already baked into the stock. If you take a look at Nvidia’s valuation metrics, you can calculate that Wall Street has already baked in around 33% earnings growth from now until the end of its fiscal year.
NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts
While Nvidia’s earnings per share (EPS) rose 168% in Q2, this figure is about to face tough comparisons now that it’s overlapping some of fiscal 2024’s strong quarters. Furthermore, a price tag of 50 times trailing earnings and 37 times forward earnings is quite expensive.
It’s more common for a company with a strong pedigree, like Nvidia, to trade for around 30 times forward earnings. So, not only does Nvidia’s stock have a bit to go before returning to that point, it would also need to double its earnings for the stock to double.
When could that be?
At Nvidia’s current stock price, it would need its forward EPS projections to be $7.08 to be worth 15 times forward earnings. Because we set the base valuation at 30 times forward earnings, this would result in the stock price doubling.
Finding far-out earnings projections isn’t easy, and only one Wall Street analyst provides fiscal 2028 (ending January 2028) EPS projections. This analyst sees EPS of $5.45, which is still a ways away from the required $7.08.
If it continues that growth trajectory, Nvidia will reach the mark around fiscal 2029, which is about four and a half years away. While that’s not a double in a year, that performance would still beat the broader market, which tends to double about every seven years.
Nvidia isn’t doubling anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a solid investment now.
Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.