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As the United States approaches its presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the Bitcoin market is bracing for significant volatility. In the lead-up to the election, Bitcoin surged to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor optimism over a potential victory for former President Donald Trump. However, by Friday, the BTC price experienced a correction, dipping to $68,830 amid a more cautious, risk-off sentiment as the election looms.
How To Trade Bitcoin During US Election
Alex Krüger, an Argentine economist and renowned crypto analyst, shared his strategic framework on how to trade Bitcoin during the US election period via his X account. Krüger outlined scenarios based on possible election outcomes, highlighting that a Trump victory could propel Bitcoin to $90,000 by year-end with a 55% probability, while a win for Vice President Kamala Harris might see Bitcoin settle around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He emphasized that timing will matter: “Expect the move to be fast if Trump wins. Markets rarely waits for laggards on binary events not largely front-run.”
Krüger also noted that the current Bitcoin price, which he anticipated to be in the $65k-68k range leading up to election night, had “overshot” in alignment with the probabilities favoring a Trump victory. He pointed out the uncertainty surrounding the election results, primarily hinging on the Pennsylvania vote count, which could delay the announcement of a clear winner.
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“It largely depends on the Pennsylvania count, if it is lopsided or not. It could be as early as Tuesday evening EST, or days later if the count is very tight. The sooner we get clarity, the easier it gets,” Krüger stated.
Regarding market sentiment, Krüger expressed a bullish outlook on equities regardless of the election outcome, unless there is an unexpected “Blue sweep” where Democrats secure both the presidency and congressional majorities. He explained that “equities drag Bitcoin around.”
In his personal investment strategy, Krüger revealed that he is positioned with long spots in Bitcoin and Nvidia, and plans to go long on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. With this, Krüger is likely betting on a spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) approval in the United States.
Krüger’s analysis suggests that the market has partially priced in a Trump victory, anticipating that a Trump administration could bolster the Bitcoin price. “Markets have partially priced a Trump victory in. We (the market, in aggregate) expect Trump to drive crypto prices higher due to increased regulatory clarity and implementation of pro-crypto policies,” the analyst wrote.
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Additionally, he expects that Trump’s focus on increased government spending would stimulate short-term economic growth, positively impacting equities—a sector closely linked to Bitcoin’s performance.
Conversely, a Harris victory would likely represent a continuation of existing policies, barring a significant Democratic sweep. Krüger concluded: “Based on betting markets and various election forecasting models, Trump’s probabilities are in the 50% to 63% range. Ergo, it’s “safe” to assume a GOP victory is far from being fully priced in. Such a contested setup is common going into elections. That is why I do not expect ‘sell the news’.”
At press time, BTC traded at $70,402.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com