As the Bitcoin price consolidates below the $60,000 threshold, the market has been characterized by a mix of indicators and technical levels, leading to a divided forecast and heightened uncertainty.
Mixed Signals Cloud Bitcoin Price Trajectory
According to Bitcoin maximalist Mark Cullen, the current Bitcoin price action presents a complex technical picture. He suggests that the $57.5,000 level will likely be tested, and the key question is whether it will hold.Â
Cullen believes it will, at least initially, before potentially breaking lower. He also highlights the importance of the $59,500 level, stating that if Bitcoin can push through, it would be a strong signal to heavily long the asset with a tight stop-loss below.
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However, Cullen also warns of the potential for a sweep of the liquidity below the $54,500 level, which could pave the way for a move to new lows in the $40,000 range if that level is breached.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler also points to a similar picture, highlighting that as the Bitcoin price currently trades below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), this could lead to further bearish continuation for BTC. According to Adler’s analysis, the next support level is the 365-day SMA at $50,000.
What Do BTC’s On-Chain Fundamentals Say?
Compounding the technical uncertainty, the data intelligence platform Glassnode has reported that Swissblock’s Bitcoin Fundamental Index (BFI) moved from positive to neutral territory last week.Â
According to the platform’s co-founders Yan Alleman and Jan Happel, this shift reflects the uncertainty surrounding the Black Monday event and the post-Consumer Price Index (CPI) bull trap felt on the chain.
The BFI, composed of two sub-metrics measuring network liquidity and network growth, has recently shown a bifurcation. While network liquidity has dropped into neutral territory, network growth has risen, painting a complex picture of Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook.
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Alleman and Happel note that the drop in network liquidity, while concerning the short term, is not necessarily a bearish signal in the long run. They explain that increased network liquidity is desirable, as it enhances Bitcoin’s functionality as a medium of exchange.
However, the rise in network growth is seen as a strong bullish sign, indicating that more players interact with the Bitcoin network on an entity-adjusted basis. This effectively creates a deeper pool of crypto-native capital, which could support the asset’s long-term valuation. The Glassnode co-founders stated:
Given the current store-of-value ‘digital gold’ narrative and the increased ease of getting BTC exposure via ETFs, CEXes, etc., rising network growth is a strong bullish sign.
When writing, the Bitcoin price is $58,680, down over 2% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com