Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo writes that Apple cut orders for the Vision Pro even before it launched outside of the US. His sources claim that Apple now expects to sell only around 400,000 to 450,000 units in 2024, compared to what Kuo says was a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. Demand for the $3,500 Vision Pro dropped much lower than the company was expecting.
Facing the unanticipated drop in steam, Apple is now adjusting its headset roadmap, possibly pushing the future of a lower-cost entry mixed reality headset beyond 2025 (if at all). Apple’s Vision Pro has largely wowed early adopters due to its technical prowess — but not enough to hold on to all of them past the return period.
Apple is often a trendsetter in new product markets, and if the Vision Pro doesn’t do well, it could leave reverberations for the whole industry. Kuo believes that demands for certain VR and AR-specific components, like the Micro OLED displays, may not reach the adoption rate needed for mass production to make it into other devices.