Despite a recent dip following its fourth halving, Bitcoin remains in great shape with plenty of upside.
Bitcoin (BTC 5.76%), the world’s first and most well-known cryptocurrency, has been making headlines once again. Following its fourth halving on April 19th, which reduced its inflation rate to a mere 0.85%, Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high of $73,000 in anticipation of this significant event.
However, since then, its price has experienced a slight dip and significant fluctuation. In fact, its price has ranged from $66,000 to $72,000 within the past 24 hours alone. So, what does this mean for investors, and is its post-halving dip just a temporary setback?
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A historic halving needed to cool off
In the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin investors were abuzz with anticipation. The recently introduced spot Bitcoin ETFs were buying more than 10 times Bitcoin’s daily production rate, giving Bitcoin the added boost It needed to soar to a record high of $73,000.
This milestone was particularly noteworthy because it marked the first time Bitcoin reached an all-time high before the halving event itself. Historically, Bitcoin notches a new all-time high after the halving.
Given that Bitcoin reached an all-time high before the expected timeline, it’s no surprise that a rapid surge was met with a subsequent period of consolidation. This is evident from on-chain data, revealing that long-term holders started capitalizing on profits at the highest rate seen since early 2021.
For the investor who was unaware of these underlying trends, the fact that Bitcoin was still trading slightly below the $70,000 mark within the past few hours may prompt some to question whether the post-halving dip is merely a temporary setback or a sign of more significant turbulence ahead.
However, the seasoned investor understands that short-term fluctuations are par for the course for Bitcoin, even in bull markets. What’s more important is to zoom out and consider the broader trend, which overwhelmingly favors Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory.
What the numbers say
In the years that Bitcoin underwent a halving, it has historically returned nearly 125%. When measured from the beginning of the year, that would be good enough to push its price to just over $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Yet, the real gains are made in the year after the halving once the impact of the halving begins to fully materialize. On average, during the year that follows a halving, Bitcoin’s price rises more than 400%. If it follows past trends in 2024 and reaches $100,000, that means 2025 could be the year Bitcoin reaches more than $500,000.
These numbers may sound sensational, and admittedly, they should be taken with a grain of salt as past performance is rarely an indicator of future results, but it is difficult to contend with the promise that this halving cycle presents.
For the majority of Bitcoin’s existence, its ascent was fueled predominantly by retail investors like you and me. However, with the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the doors have been opened for deep-pocketed institutional investors to enter the Bitcoin market. Consequently, Bitcoin’s supply is poised to face unprecedented pressure, the likes of which it has probably never experienced.
Taking a step back
In the wake of the halving, Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics undergo a significant shift, with the reduced issuance of new coins inevitably leading to increased scarcity. This scarcity, coupled with growing demand from institutional investors and mainstream adoption, forms the foundation for Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation. In essence, Bitcoin would have to defy economic principles to not increase in value over time — a scenario that is highly unlikely barring unforeseen catastrophic events.
While this post-halving dip may have given some investors pause, we might be seeing its impact wane. Bitcoin’s price is already up more than 15% in the last week and it appears it might be building momentum for another leg up. If there is another dip in the future, it should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a cause for concern as Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain robust, and the temporary fluctuations in its price are simply noise in the grand scheme of things.